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股市或迎来修复行情
时间:2024-01-03 15:49:28 来源：再见ろ天真 浏览次数:88 我来说两句(0)
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海外经济面临进一步下行的风险。2023年持续快速的加息过后，美欧经济动能逐步下降，2024年上半年将面临更大的下行压力。若海外主要央行选择降息，美国经济将迎来一定程度的反弹，但欧元区降息后经济恢复将较为缓慢。
国际货币基金组织预计2024年全球经济增速为2.9%，低于疫情前长期增长中枢，发达经济体平均经济增速仅为1.4%。
2024年国内经济将持续修复，有望实现5%左右的增长。2023年底召开的中央经济工作会议释放出积极的政策信号，财政政策加力提效、货币政策“灵活适度”。政府支出增加以及通胀温和回升有望推动消费进一步回暖；重大项目、“三大工程”、大规模设备更新有望带动投资需求有所回升。从经济复苏节奏上看，2023年底到2024年初处于政策集中发力阶段，经济回暖趋势较为确定，但随着海外发达经济体需求的下滑，我国经济也将面临一定的外部扰动。
在国内经济复苏、全球流动性转向宽松的背景下，2024年股市可能会迎来修复行情。人民币汇率压力有所下降，将在合理均衡的水平上保持基本稳定。
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