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光大期货：就业数据大超预期，金价波动或将加强
时间:2024-01-08 10:05:55 来源：青灯古城 浏览次数:3 我来说两句(0)
上周，COMEX黄金价格下跌0.93%至2052.60美元/盎司，沪金2404合约上涨0.05%至482.38元/克。
上周美国小非农数据ADP和非农数据双双大幅超预期，美国12月季调后非农就业人口录得增加21.6万人，超出预期的17万人，为2023年9月来新高，失业率为3.7%，低于预期的3.8%。美国12月非农就业人数增速加快，工资涨幅超预期，削弱了美联储3月降息的可能性。就业报告公布后，交易员对美联储3月降息概率的预期降至50%左右，美债收益率攀升。
但非农数据的好转是基于前值大幅下修的背景，此外劳动参与率也有所下降，数据的上涨或许并不意味着经济的好转。在非农数据公布后，COMEX金价急剧下跌后大幅反弹并收回跌幅、美元指数呈现下跌趋势，这表明市场对于经济的回暖并不充分认可，对于美联储降息的预期或将继续被定价于金价中。关于降息预期对金价走势的更多影响，重点关注本周周四美国即将公布12月通胀数据。若通胀数据与就业数据一样呈现反弹，市场对降息的预期或将大幅调整，金价走势或因此承受短期大幅波动。
撰稿：吴爱华
从业资格：F3074355
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免责声明：文中观点、建议和结论仅供参考，报告中的资料来源于公开信息，相关分析和建议并不构成所述品种的投资操作依据，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司和本作者无关。
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